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16 changes: 3 additions & 13 deletions lectures/time_series_with_matrices.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -370,14 +370,6 @@ $$

You can read about multivariate normal distributions in this lecture [Multivariate Normal Distribution](https://python.quantecon.org/multivariate_normal.html).

Let's write our model as

$$
y = \tilde A (b + u)
$$

where $\tilde A = A^{-1}$.

Because linear combinations of normal random variables are normal, we know that

$$
Expand All @@ -387,13 +379,13 @@ $$
where

$$
\mu_y = \tilde A b
\mu_y = A^{-1} b
$$

and

$$
\Sigma_y = \tilde A (\sigma_u^2 I_{T \times T} ) \tilde A^T
\Sigma_y = A^{-1} (\sigma_u^2 I_{T \times T} ) (A^{-1})^T
$$

Let's write a Python class that computes the mean vector $\mu_y$ and covariance matrix $\Sigma_y$.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -566,12 +558,10 @@ Since $A^{-1}$ is lower triangular, each row represents $ y_t$ for a particul
- a time-dependent function $A^{-1} b$ of the initial conditions incorporated in $b$, and
- a weighted sum of current and past values of the IID shocks $\{u_t\}$.

Thus, let $\tilde{A}=A^{-1}$.

Evidently, for $t\geq0$,

$$
y_{t+1}=\sum_{i=1}^{t+1}\tilde{A}_{t+1,i}b_{i}+\sum_{i=1}^{t}\tilde{A}_{t+1,i}u_{i}+u_{t+1}
y_{t+1}=\sum_{i=1}^{t+1}(A^{-1})_{t+1,i}b_{i}+\sum_{i=1}^{t}(A^{-1})_{t+1,i}u_{i}+u_{t+1}
$$

This is a **moving average** representation with time-varying coefficients.
Expand Down
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